London's Super-prime market comeback
The super-prime real estate market in London recently experienced its greatest year since the Brexit vote. In the year ending in March, wealthy purchasers spent £3.1 billion on 161 residences worth £10 million or more. In contrast, the preceding 12-month period saw 144 transactions and a total of £2.5 billion. A larger sales total at this level (164) can only be found in 2015–16, however, the spending was still well behind the record-breaking £4.3 billion spent across 227 deals in 2014–15.
With 26 purchases worth £10 million or more over the course of the year, the all-market research affirms Kensington as the hottest super-prime market in London, followed by Belgravia (25) and Mayfair (22). Houses made up 67% of the recorded transactions, down from 70% in the year leading up to March 2022, when lockdown limitations increased demand for space. 60% of transactions throughout the previous 12 months were for homes.
It is anticipated that the ratio of house sales would remain reasonably high despite a decline in the supply of luxury new-build flats entering the market. In developments where the blended value is £3,000 per square foot or more, there will be a significant decrease in the number of units approved, under construction, or delivered each year. By 2027, only 146 people remain, down from 1,364 in 2022. In comparison to the five-year average, the first quarter of 2023 had significant levels of both supply and demand. While there were 11% more properties going on the market for sale, there were 15% more new prospective purchasers registering with bids over £10 million.
As more people started travelling internationally last year, demand increased. When the fluctuation of the pound and property values are coupled, US dollar-denominated or pegged buyers still benefit from an effective discount of 37% in PCL compared to July 2014. Average prices above £10 million have been "relatively flat," increasing by just 0.5% in the year to March, the same increase seen in the three years after the pandemic's initial March 2020 strike.
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