Real Estate Sentiment Index (May 2023)

Real Estate Sentiment Index (May 2023)

The core fundamentals continue to persist as the "new normal" bears a striking resemblance to the familiar patterns of the past.

The core fundamentals continue to persist as the "new normal" bears a striking resemblance to the familiar patterns of the past.

  • A significant majority, comprising 70% of prospective buyers in the United Kingdom, expressed a high level of assurance in their intention to acquire a property within the upcoming three months

  • A substantial portion, specifically 64%, of property sellers in the United Kingdom exhibited a strong belief in successfully selling their property within the following three months

  • In comparison to the April 2022 figure of 63%, the percentage of properties that achieved a "Sold Subject to Contract" (SSTC) status within 30 days of their initial listing for sale declined to 43%

Regarding the housing market, April revolved around a return to the familiar routine, resembling a "business as usual" atmosphere. This newfound normalcy brings a sense of comfort as it resembles the past. Following a period of unprecedented uncertainty triggered by September's mini-Budget, which led to a significant surge in fixed-rate mortgage prices, the market has regained a level of stability. Inflation appears to be decreasing, albeit at a slower pace than desired, and although the possibility of another interest rate hike cannot be dismissed, market projections indicate that we are approaching the conclusion of these upward adjustments.

Overall, the underlying factors present a positive outlook for the property market. Our April data reflects this sentiment, as 70% of buyers in the UK expressed confidence in purchasing a property within the next three months, slightly lower than the 71% reported in March. Furthermore, seller confidence remained steady, with 64% of sellers believing they would successfully sell their property within the upcoming three months in April, compared to 63% in March. While regional variations are typically observed due to the absence of a uniform property market, April witnessed minimal fluctuations nationwide. In addition, approximately 43% of all properties achieved a "Sold Subject to Contract" (SSTC) status within 30 days of being initially listed for sale in April. Although this figure is lower than the 63% recorded in the previous April, it is important to note the contrasting market conditions at that time, characterised by double-digit price growth and strong demand for spacious properties. Currently, a sense of stability has resurfaced, potentially influenced by the Easter holidays and the typical seasonal slowdown when families are away and house hunting takes a backseat.

According to the Nationwide building society, house prices experienced a 0.5% increase in April following a continuous decline over the past seven months. However, agents are particularly interested in transaction numbers, as they provide a more accurate reflection of the overall market health. Fortunately, transaction numbers are also showing an upward trend after a period of decline, as reported by HM Revenue & Customs. In addition, the Bank of England's mortgage approvals for house purchases, which serve as an indicator of future borrowing, are also on the rise, although they are still below last year's monthly average.

Mortgages continue to exhibit some degree of volatility. After experiencing a surge in the autumn followed by a decline earlier this year, mortgage rates have recently shown a slight upward trend due to the rise in Swap rates, which influence the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages. However, there is positive news for first-time buyers as lenders have been reducing rates on mortgages with higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios, indicating their confidence in the market's prospects.

After the tumultuous past few months filled with fluctuations, a period of relative normalcy and stability is highly welcomed. People are moving forward with their plans to move, driven by various motivations. Despite recent disruptions, such as surging inflation, rising living costs, and higher mortgage rates, the situation is gradually stabilising. Rather than experiencing sharp peaks and valleys, the market has reached a more consistent state. It is fair to say that the market has rebalanced itself and appears to be heading towards a "business as usual" trajectory in the future.

April 2023 Headlines

Sellers

Based on our survey of sellers, the average rates of confidence in the UK for the past month are as follows:

  • 64% of sellers expressed confidence in selling their property within the next 3 months, showing a slight increase compared to March 2023 (63%)
  • 26% of sellers were confident in selling their properties within the next 6 months, reflecting a minor decrease compared to March 2023 (27%)
  • 4% of sellers expressed confidence in selling their properties within the next 9 months, remaining unchanged from March 2023 (4%)
  • 6% of sellers expressed confidence in selling their home within the next 12 months, remaining unchanged from March 2023 (6%)

Buyers

From our sample of buyers surveyed, UK average rates of confidence over the last month were as follows:

  • 70% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 3 months, a slight decrease when compared to March 2023 (71%)
  • 21% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 6 months, a slight increase when compared to March 2023 (20%)
  • 3% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 9 months, unchanged when compared to March 2023 (3%)
  • 6% of buyers were confident that they would purchase a property within the next 12 months, unchanged when compared to March 2023 (6%)

General Consensus

  • In April 2023, on average across the UK, only 7% of individuals planning to move expressed concerns (ranging from being very worried to slightly concerned) about obtaining a mortgage for their next property. This shows a slight increase compared to March 2023 (6%)
  • Among the regions, the North West had the highest percentage of respondents (27%) who had already obtained a mortgage Agreement In Principle before commencing their property search, while the South West had the lowest percentage (17%)
  • On average in the UK, 28% of individuals planning to move had not considered applying for a mortgage prior to beginning their property search. In Greater London, buyers were the least likely to have considered applying for a mortgage beforehand (35%)
  • Across the UK, 33% of buyers surveyed stated that they did not require a mortgage to purchase a property. Greater London had the lowest percentage of respondents indicating that they would not need a mortgage (20%), whereas the South West had the highest percentage (44%)


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